As we open up Week 13 of the NFL, here is a look at the top wagers for the game tonight.

Buffalo Bills (-4, 43.5) vs New England Patriots

Given who the Bills are and our expectations for them this season, it is no surprise that the public is betting heavily on the Bills to cover. However, the line has not moved accordingly. Despite 74% of all wagers being on the Bills, the spread has fallen from -5.5 to -3.5. This is because smart money and sharps have hammered the Patriots plus the points, triggering massive steam and reverse line movement in their favor. The contrarian pick is the best wager here based on this information, and most of the top models have indicated taking the Patriots and the points as well. Plus, there are rumors of an illness sweeping throughout the Bills’ locker room.  We recommend taking the Patriots +3.5.

Josh Allen Passing Yards (270.5)

Josh Allen currently has 3,183 passing yards in 11 games, good for second highest in the league. However, we don’t expect a big number out of him this week.

Allen topped this number in five of Buffalo’s first six games but has gone over 270 in just one of their last five, which was an overtime game. His average over the past five games has been around 240 yards, and he is facing a very good secondary tonight. Expect Josh Allen to affect the game in other ways, such as an increased number of rushing yards, but most reliable models show him ending up between 245-255 yards. We like the under on 270.5 passing yards for Josh Allen.