Thursday Night Football: Top Bets
December 15, 2022

Here is a look at our top bets for tonight’s NFL game.


San Francisco 49ers (-3, 43.5) vs Seattle Seahawks

It’s hard projecting this game given that Brock Purdy is questionable for tonight’s game. However, we do know that Deebo Samuel is definitely out, and it’s difficult to back the Niners on a short week on the road. Three points for Seattle is attractive with an offense that can score to at least get a backdoor cover. Assuming Purdy does start, it’s a difficult spot doing so on a short week in a hostile environment of Seattle. The Niners are likely going to focus their offense on Christian McCaffrey both on the ground and through the air, and the Seahawk’s run defense hasn’t been great lately. With that said, the 49ers likely conservative gameplan makes it tougher to cover over 3 points. Additionally, there is a lot of big money and sharp money on the Seahawks with the points.

Because of all this, we like the Seahawks +3.


Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions (-103)

McCaffrey is coming off one of his quietest passing games of the year, tying a season low with two receptions, and his three targets we the second lowest since his debut with the 49ers. But don’t expect that to carry over.

The 49ers were up big early last week and are still trying to get Brock Purdy acclimated to the NFL, so they threw significantly less passes than usual with McCaffrey sitting most of the second half. With newer quarterbacks, teams often try to focus on shorter and safer passes, and what’s safer than a swing pass to one of the best running backs out of the backfield? He is also expected to get more targets and playing time with Deebo Samuel out this week.

McCaffrey is averaging 5.2 receptions and 6.6 targets per game this season — with those numbers jumping to 6.2 catches on 7.6 targets in his five Niners games with a full workload, which he will get tonight barring something unexpected. Because of this, we like the over on 4.5 receptions for CMC.