Here is a look at our best bets for the Thanksgiving Day games.
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 42.5)
By many metrics, the Patriots have the best defense on the league. They rank first in EPA/play, Success Rate against and have likely the best pass defense. Meanwhile, the Vikings have not shown to have a very good offense, and have been underachieving on the ground this year compared to previous seasons.
Justin Jefferson can obviously be explosive and has had a few very productive games, however, he has also been held in check against better defenses. Additionally, the Vikings have struggled to keep pressure off of Kirk Cousins, which has severely negative affected this offense. The Patriots are second in the NFL with 36 sacks, trailing only the Cowboys. The injury to LT Christian Darrisaw can also have a huge impact in this game.
The Patriots offense has been very bad as well this season. The Patriots are 25th in EPA/play and Dropback EPA, and just 24th in Rushing Success Rate, which is a far cry from previous seasons. The Vikings have also been more effective against the rush than the pass. Unless Mac Jones is going to suddenly have a big game, the Patriots offense is likely to struggle again.
Our experts like the under of 42.5.
Buffalo Bills (-10, 54.5) at Detroit Lions
Based on our models, the Lions appear to be getting an extra 1-1.5 points than they should. This line started at 10.5, which was almost certainly a deterrent for the amount of chalk bets the sportsbooks were expecting to come in on the Bills. Some books have the line down to 9.5 right now. There has been a lot of sharp action on the Lions as well.
Josh Allen doesn’t look fully healthy, and the Detroit defense has been much better over the last month. This game also looks primed for a backdoor cover.
Based on our models and the sharp action, our experts like the Lions +10. Be sure to shop the line as +10 is a huge difference in expected value over +9.5 points.