Second Half Betting Strategies
August 24, 2022

Almost all betting apps nowadays offer live and halftime betting, which is becoming more and more popular among sports bettors. But, you need to make sure you have a strategy and are following proper analytics in doing so. Betting on the second half to make up for a bad first half Is not a sound strategy. Below are a few options and strategies you have for when to bet on the second half.

Attempting to middle

We talked about this in the course, but middling is when a bettor places wagers on both sides of the same bet at different lines, attempting to win both, and ensuring that at least one of them will win. So for example, lets say you bet on the Miami Heat at -6 over the Los Angeles Lakers before the game started. At halftime, the Heat are up by 18, and the Heat are listed at -3 for the second half. In this situation, you could bet the Lakers in the second half at +3, and if the Heat end up winning by between 7-21 points, you win both bets. On the downside, if the final does not fall within that window, you will win one bet and lose one bet, and breakeven minus the vig.

Large second half NFL underdogs

While second half underdogs are right at about 50% covering the second half spread in the NFL over the last 20 seasons, larger underdogs have seen more success. Teams that are getting at least seven points in the second half have won over 60% of the time over that same 20 year period. Larger spreads can be difficult to cover in the NFL and especially when the favorite only has a half to do so.

Winning big at halftime

A popular thought process among bettors is that teams that have a bad first half will make the necessary adjustments at halftime, or the winning team will regress in the second half, resulting in a much closer game. However, the data does not show this to be the case. According to the analytics, a larger first half margin of victory leads to a better second half win rate. Over the last 20 years, teams with at least a 14-point lead at halftime, cover the second half spread over 55% of the time.