NFL Week 5: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
October 7, 2023

The New York Giants have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season, off to a 1-3 start. Miami is 3-1 but coming off a 48-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The oddsmakers expect the Dolphins to bounce back strong as they are a 12-point favorite heading into this matchup, with the total set at 48 according to DraftKings.

Laying double digits on an NFL favorite feels like a lot, but based on how the Giants have played, is there any value on New York and the points? Also, are the Giants worth a flier at the +470 money line price?

Last season, the Giants went 9-7-1 through the regular season. New York then beat the Vikings 31-24 in their opening playoff game before losing 38-7 to the Eagles in the Divisional Round. Miami finished 9-8 last year in the regular season and dropped their Wild Card round playoff game 34-31 to the Bills. It’s hard to believe that these two franchises had similar records last season based on what we have seen in 2023.

Both teams are in the bottom quarter of the league in yards per play allowed this season, but the differences in offense have been drastic. The Giants offense has been horrendous, tied for last in the NFL averaging just 4.0 yards per play. New York has missed starting running back Saquon Barkley in each of the last two games, and his status for this Sunday is in question. Quarterback Daniel Jones has been one of the worst in the NFL this season, throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions, and ranking 27th with a 37.0 QBR.

While Daniel Jones has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the best, ranking second with a 79.0 QBR and nine touchdowns against three interceptions. As a team, Miami is  first in the NFL, averaging 8.0 yards per play, well above the 49ers, who are second, averaging 6.3 yards per play. 

As big as this number seems, each of the Giant’s three losses this season have come by at least 18 points or more, and they have been outscored 46 to 122 this year. The Dolphins have outscored their opponents 150 to 119, and that’s after losing by 28 last week. 

We recommend betting on the Dolphins, as I see them winning this game by at least 14 points. The Giants have been simply terrible this season, and the Dolphins are a much better team. The Dolphins have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Giants have one of the worst defenses. The Dolphins will also be motivated to bounce back after losing to the Bills last week.