Here is a breakdown of our top bets for Week 15 of the NFL season.

Miami Dolphins (+7, 43.5) vs Buffalo Bills

There has been a lot made about what is going to happen when a warm weather team visits a cold weather city in mid-December. Temperatures are low and snow has been falling, with more expected. This weather was predicted earlier in the week, which has caused the public to bet the under heavily. But there is one important aspect everyone is missing. Historically, snow does not affect the total nearly as much as wind or heavy rain. With moderate winds expected during the game, we think this number is just too low, as our model says the total should be around 46.

We recommend going against the public and “experts” and taking the over.

New York Giants (+4, 40.5) vs Washington Commanders

These two teams played to a tie two weeks ago with the Giants at +2.5, and now the Giants are getting an extra 1.5 points. The Commanders are at home, coming off a bye week, and could have Chase Young back, so it’s understandable why they’re favored. But this number is too high given the way that game went in the first meeting. The Giants have the defensive line to remain competitive, and if the running game looks better than it did against Philadelphia, this should be a very close game. Saquon Barkley had his worst game of the season in the previous meeting based on rushing EPA (expected points added), and he should play better in this rematch.

We like the Giants +4.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 48.5) vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields and the Bears have another difficult game this week, this time against the NFC leading Philadelphia Eagles and MVP frontrunner Jalen Hurts. The only chance the Bears have in this game is for Fields to take over the game, both with his arm, but more importantly, with his legs. And don’t think the Bears won’t be trying to cut him loose on the ground.

His rushing yards prop is set at 67.5, a number he has gone over in eight of the last nine games. Even last week, when the Bears were held to just 52 plays (fewest since Week 5), Fields still had 71 rushing yards on six attempts. The six attempts were his fewest of the season, but he got there with some big plays.

As expected, it’s going to be cold and windy on Sunday in Chicago, so the teams will likely focus more on the running game. That enhances the likelihood of Fields having a lot of rushing attempts and he should be able to get over this number again.

We like Justin Fields Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-120)