Here is a breakdown of our top picks for Week 12 in the NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) vs Arizona Cardinals

The Chargers’ biggest weakness is their lack of run defense, which is one of the worst in the NFL. However, that shouldn’t be too big an issue this week against Arizona. The Cardinals rank 21st in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and will be without Kyler Murray who accounts for a large percentage of their rush yards.  James Conner has been very underwhelming and hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in a game yet this season. The Chargers will not have to worry about their rush defense this game so they can focus on defending the pass against a backup QB.

On the other side, the Cardinals are allowing over 250 yards per game against the pass, which should play into the Chargers strengths on offense. This should lead to a high scoring game, which plays into the Chargers hands.

We like the Chargers -2.5.

San Francisco 49ers (-8.5, 43) vs New Orleans Saints

The 49ers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and the Saints are having a very disappointing season, but are coming off a win last week against the Rams. New Orleans has been a run-heavy team when they can be, but are facing a tough 49ers front this game. San Francisco on the other hand, have had a balanced attack on offense and have been thriving with Garoppolo under center. So this should be easy for the 49ers correct?

Not so fast! This looks to be a huge trap game. All betting signals are pointing towards the Saints. Both the public money and the sharps are heavy on the Saints. Whenever that happens, it is something to pay attention to. There was also a steam movement on the Saints earlier this week.

We like the Saints +8.5.

Chicago Bears (+4.5, 39) vs New York Jets

This game is very interesting. Both starting quarterbacks are out this week, Fields due to injury and Wilson due to benching. However, the difference is we expect the Bears to miss their quarterback much more. The Jets have one of the best defenses on the league, and we expect them to thrive against an under-manned Bears offense. Mike White should be a game manager and protect the ball, which will actually help the Jets as opposed to Zach Wilson’s struggles lately.

The weather for this game should be cold and rainy, which coupled with the missing starting quarterbacks, is causing many people to jump on the under. We like the other side. The Jets defense should be able to generate stops and turnovers, putting Mike White and the Jets offense in great positions to score. While there will likely not be too many field goals, we believe the Jets offense will be able to covert enough touchdowns, resulting in more points than expected.

We like the Jets -4.5 and the over.