NFL Divisional Weekend Playoffs: Top Bets
January 20, 2023

Here are our experts’ top picks for the NFL Divisional Playoffs.

Dallas Cowboys (+4.5, 46.5) vs San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers and Cowboys had two of the most efficient defenses in the NFL this year. They allowed the fourth (SF) and eighth (Dallas) fewest yards per play over the course of the season and both rank within the top five in points against per game as well.

While Brock Purdy has been a solid option at QB for the 49ers, the Cowboys will be his first top-five defensive opponent this year. Both squads will probably end up leaning on the run game, which will lead to less points.

There is also a significant amount of larger bets on the under, indicating likely sharp action. There is currently only 17% of the bets on the under, but that accounts for over 85% of the money.

We like Under 46.5 in this game.


Trevor Lawrence Over/Under 250.5 passing yards (-114)

If the Jaguars have any chance of pulling off this upset, they are going to need Trevor Lawrence to have a spectacular game. Lawrence can be Jacksonville’s difference maker, and it will have to be his arm that carried them to the Conference Championship game.

Last week, Lawrence’s four touchdowns came on 288 passing yards, with the team continuing to trust in his ability despite four picks. Given that the Jaguars will likely be playing from behind, they will likely shift to predominantly throwing the ball most of the second half.

The Chiefs have allowed an average of 221 passing yards per game, but played in a weak division. When these teams played earlier this season, the Jaguars successfully attempted an onside kick on the opening kickoff and went for it several times on fourth down. The Jaguars know they will need to put up a ton of points to win the game against the Chiefs high-powered offense, and should let Lawrence air it out even more than usual.

We like Trevor Lawrence Over 250 passing yards


New York Giants (+7.5, 48) vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants won last week thanks in part to the spectacular play of Daniel Jones. But keep in mind, that was against a defense that was ranked at or near the bottom in most statistical categories.

The Eagles benefitted with the bye week to get Jalen Hurts’ healthier and have some extra rest and prep time. In order for the Giants to stay close, they will need great games from Jones, Barkley, and their defense. That will be difficult against a top-3 offense and 2nd ranked defense, which led the league with 70 sacks.

We expect the Eagles’ top-5 rushing attack to take full advantage of the Giants’ 25th-ranked run defense.