Here is our best bet for the Men’s NCAA Championship game tonight.
San Diego State (+7.5, 131.5) vs Connecticut
There is often a spread as high as 7.5 points in the title game, in fact, it has only happened six times over the last 35 years. UConn entered the postseason ranked fourth in KenPom and has not lost a game outside the Big East this season. The team went undefeated in non-conference play, and we know the Huskies haven’t lost in the last three weeks.
San Diego State trailed at halftime in its past two games and allowed opponents to shoot 54%. The Aztecs have tightened things up in the second half, but they likely are going to try to slow the tempo down and play the type of defense they did in the second half against Creighton and Florida Atlantic. However, that will very difficult against UConn.
Five straight victories by double-digits and five straight covers shows that UConn can play with and score against anybody. Both squads play suffocating defense, but Connecticut has a much more high-powered offense. If Connecticut get in front by 10 points or more, or if this becomes a high-paced game, San Diego State will be in real trouble.
While San Diego State is a prolific defensive team around the rim, the Aztecs likely don’t have enough defense to stop both the ways the Huskies can score. The Aztecs offensively are ranked 68th in the country entering this game, and that’s just not good enough against the eighth-ranked Huskies defense. San Diego State also struggles at times to make their foul shots.
Based on the analytics, we expect UConn to jump out ahead and be up by double digits at half. While San Diego State will likely put a dent into the lead in the second half, it likely won’t be enough.
We like UConn -7.5 points.