NCAA Men’s Basketball: Top Bets
March 6, 2023

Below are our top bets for tonight NCAA Men’s Basketball action.

BYU (+7.5, 130.5) vs Saint Mary’s

BYU and Saint Mary’s face off in the semifinals of the WCC Tournament and the Cougars have dropped both matchups against the Gaels so far this season. The last time they were out on the court together, the total only reached 113, and this should be a target for Monday’s battle.

BYU runs at one of the faster paces in the country at 65th in Adjusted Tempo (KenPom), but the Gaels rank 359th in this regard. The Gaels also average 20.3 seconds per possession while holding opponents to 44.8% on 2-pointers.

On offense, the Cougars shoot 3s at a 39.8% clip, but they are only knocking down 32.8% of these 3s. This is incredibly efficient.

Now, they are shooting 53% inside the arc, but this is where the Gaels can defend. Both of these teams are phenomenal defensive rebounders, so there shouldn’t bee too many second chance points.

Finally, Saint Mary’s ranks 222nd in offensive free-throw attempt rate.

We like Under 130.5


North Dakota State (+4.5, 140.5) vs. South Dakota State

These teams split their two meetings this season, as the first matchup was 65-59 and the second was 90-85. It feels like we’ll get something closer to the former on Monday night.

Neither side plays fast, as South Dakota State ranks 223rd in adjusted tempo and NDSU is 145th. Both teams went under the total in their first Summit League Tournament game, and now they are playing on short rest. This game should be highly competitive at both ends, and we could see tired legs (and missed jumpers) down the stretch.

We like Under 140.5.