Below is a look at our top bets for tonight’s NBA games.

Washington Wizards (+100, First to 5) vs Chicago Bulls

Even though the “first to five” wager can be very unpredictable, there are certain times when there is positive expected value for a variety of reasons. In this case, we show there is value in this wager because of the jump-ball data. The Wizards generally have Kristaps Porzingis for the opening tip, who is winning about 80.4% of his jump balls. On the other side, the Bulls will send Nikola Vucevic to the circle to jump, who is winning just 22% of the time.

The Wizards convert those jump ball wins into the first basket 56% of the time, while the Bulls convert the same opportunities only 31% of the time. Taking everything into account, the Wizards should be about -120 for this wager, so we strongly recommend taking them Wizards first to five (+100).

Golden State (+7.5, 233) vs Utah Jazz

Some of the Warriors big names, Curry, Wiggins, and Green, are all sitting out this game. Even with their full team, the Warriors have struggled mightily on the road this season (2-10), and the Jazz have played well at home. The Jazz have lost nine of their last 13 games since their great start to the season, but just one of those losses are by double digits. Our models show the Jazz should be favored by 8.5 points, so we recommend taking the Jazz +7.5.