Monday Night Football: Top Bets
November 28, 2022

As we close out Week 12 of the NFL season, lets look at some of the top wagers for Monday night’s game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 39.5) vs Indianapolis Colts

There aren’t a lot of huge opportunities in this game as the line and total seems to be relatively accurate according to our models.

Diontae Johnson sits second on the team in receiving yards but has the most targets by a large amount. He hasn’t been used as much since Kenny Pickett took over the quarterback position, but that looks likely to change. According to FiveThirtyEight, he is the fourth most open receiver in the league this year.

The Steelers have also indicated that they intend to use him more in the offensive game plan, and Pickett has been working with him more in practice in recent weeks. Indianapolis also has a strong running defense which should cause the Steelers to focus more on the pass game in Week 12.

This is also the first indoor game the Steelers will play this year, which should help Pickett, Johnson, and the rest of the Steelers offense.

Johnson’s Week 12 prop total has been lowered to 43.5 yards after being at or above 50 yards the last few weeks. We expect all this to play favorably towards a bigger night for Johnson.

We recommend taking Diontae Johnson Over 43.5 receiving yards (-114)


Steelers vs Colts Over/Under

The total for this game was originally posted at 40.5, but has since been bet down to 39.5. Again, this is an indoor game so weather won’t be a factor. There has been big and sharp money coming in on the under in the last 48 hours. As of writing, only about 43% of the bets are on the under but over 64% of the money is there.

Both of these teams rely on their defenses to set the tone, and both are strong against the run, which doesn’t bode well for either offense, who rely on the run to setup the passing game. We believe the Steelers defense, and particularly TJ Watt, should have success against the Colt’s poor pass protection. Both of these teams rank in the top ten for pace, but both also sit in the bottom three for points per play this season. We expect this trend to continue tonight.

We like the under for this game.