Here is a look at our top bets for the Monday Night Football game tonight.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 49.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals
The biggest factor in this game will likely come down to pass protection. Cincinnati suffered a major loss when right tackle La’el Collins suffered a torn ACL last week. While Joe Burrow was still able to throw for 375 yards, he was sacked twice and threw two interceptions. The Bengals were limited to only 22 points and shut out for the entire second half.
That doesn’t bode well against a Bills defense that has at least two sacks in 13 of their 15 games this season. Buffalo also ranks seventh in Pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders, so this is a tough matchup. We could see the Bills pressure Burrow and slow down the Bengals’ passing game via their pass rush.
We’re starting to see the Bills offense round into form, as they’ve eclipsed 30 points in consecutive games after failing to do so in their previous three.
Josh Allen Over/Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
There is a consistent pattern from the last two season with Buffalo, when they play their biggest games, Allen runs more, typically around 10 times for 60 yards.
Allen’s rushing attempts prop is at 8.5. He’s gone over that in 12-of-17 games (71%) against playoff opponents across these two seasons. He’s run for at least 44 yards in 13 of the 17 (76%), and he’s 10-7 (59%) to the posted 48.5 yards over with several close misses.
Cincinnati ranks bottom five against designed QB runs, and both of its best pass rushers are banged up so containing Allen could be very difficult for them. Add in a 50% chance of rain and that’s even more of a setup for Allen to tuck and run.
Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards