Here is a breakdown of our top bets for tonight’s game.
New England Patriots (-2.5, 44) vs Arizona Cardinals
Bill Belichick has extra time to prepare for the Cardinals with less than a three point spread…we like it. Belichick is 65% ATS after a loss and 65% ATS in games with spreads of three points or less. As a seven-point favorite or less after a loss, Belichick is 41-11-1 ATS (79%) in his career, including 3-1 this season. On the other side, Kingsbury and Murray are 10-23 SU from Week 8 forward, including being only 12-19-2 ATS (39%).
The Patriots defense ranks third in DVOA. The Cardinals offense ranks 29th, and the defense has the same ranking over the past six weeks. During that stretch, New England ranks ninth overall in DVOA, while the Cards are second to last. Arizona has typically had to rely on long drives or Murray magic in order to score touchdowns this year, which haven’t happened as much as they have in the past.
As a result, we like the Patriots -2.5 points.
While the Patriots have a good defense, they have gotten into shootouts, as seen against the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving. There’s a chance that we see something similar here. This is also only the second time Kyler Murray will have both DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown available to him. Our models are showing that the O/U should be about 45.5 points, so there is some value on the over.
We recommend taking the Over in this game.