Below is a look at the game tonight with our top recommend bets.
Los Angeles Rams (+7.5, 39.5) vs Green Bay Packers
The Over/Under was as high as 41 earlier in the week, but has been bet down to 39.5 on most books. Obviously, it will be cold in Green Bay, with the snow and some wind causing minor issues.
As mentioned, the Packers’ offensive output struggled for a good portion of the season — ranking 23rd in EPA per play in the opening nine weeks — but has picked it up in the past four games.
The Rams’ offense has a lot of key injuries and Mayfield is still brand new in the system and trying to learn the offense, despite the successful debut last week. With the weather and Mayfield’s experience in this offense, we expect the Rams to focus on the run.
The most successful part of the Packers offense this year has been the running game with Jones and Dillon. The Rams have been good against the run though, so the Packers may try Letting Rodgers threw a few more passes this week. But with the inexperience and inconsistency of the Packers wide receiving core, their success will likely be somewhat limited.
We expect this to be a low scoring game and like the Under 39.5.
Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 1.5 passings touchdowns (+105)
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been playing better as of late, and extra time off for Rodgers should help him as he has been battling injuries all season. Rodgers has also made it known that he wants to throw the ball more, and the once unreliable receiving core has shown some improvement over the last several weeks.
Even with Rodgers not playing like his past self for much of the year, he’s connected for two or more touchdowns in nine of his 13 games. Because of the cold weather and Rodgers only throwing one TD pass last week, a lot of money has hit the under.
As stated above, the Rams defense strengths lies with stopping the run, so the Packers will likely have to air it out more, especially inside the red zone, where the Ram rank second in the league defensively.
This is the healthiest we’ve seen Rodgers quite a while and the passing game is now at full strength. We like recommend betting Over 1.5 Touchdowns.