Here are our experts’ top bets for today’s MLB action.
Cleveland Guardians (-150, 7.5) vs New York Yankees
New York was on the road over the weekend in Baltimore and is now traveling to Cleveland. Domingo German is not an elite pitcher and is facing off against one of the game’s best pitchers. German’s WHIP might say he is great but his home run rate is too high and that will likely spell trouble in Yankee Stadium. Despite excellent stuff, Bieber has yet to get into the win column after two starts but we think that changes today. The bottom four of the projected lineup for the Yankees have never faced Bieber which is a huge advantage for him, and the other five have gone 4-for-22 (.182) against him with zero home runs.
There is also some sharp money coming in on the Guardiansat -140 to -150.
We like the Guardians -150
Dylan Cease Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts
White Sox ace Dylan Cease is fourth in the majors in strikeouts, and his 14.3 K/9 rate is on pace to smash his 12.3 K/9 rate that led the league in 2021. Cease has strikeout totals of eight and 10 this season and struck out 15 Twins in two appearances last year.
Though the Twins rank tied for the 11th-lowest strikeout percentage (20.9%), four hitters who are projected to be in Monday’s lineup (Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon, Michael Taylor, and Trevor Larnach) each have struck out in at least 40% of their career at-bats against Cease (all have 10-plus at-bats).
We like Over 7.5 strikeouts.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-155, 7.5) vs San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants have been struggling mightily when facing lefties. The good news for Giants fans is that Webb has typically been much more effective at home. The righty has posted a fantastic 3.01 ERA at home, but just a 4.07 on the road. The Giants have been struggling mightily against lefties to start the year, compiling a league-low 29 wRC+ across 65 at-bats. They’ve struck out an absurdly high 40% of the time in those appearances, the highest in the league by nearly six percentage points. If we go back to 2022 to get a larger sample, San Francisco ranked 14th in wRC+ (106) against southpaws, but the team posted the fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.8%).
Urias has been dominant to start the year and faces a Giants lineup that’s been the worst in the league by a mile against southpaws. We expect runs are going to be hard to come by in this game.
We like Under 7.5 runs scored.
