Early Week 5 Picks – NFL
October 3, 2022

With Week 4 of the NFL season just about done, it’s time to an early look at the Week 5 games and lines. Our current picks for Week 5 are below:

  1. Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at New York Jets

Everyone was riding high on the Dolphins going into Week 4, but now they are coming off a poor performance on Thursday night and an injury to Tua Tagolvaloa. As bad as the Dolphins looked last week, they had short rest after playing a very difficult opponent in the Bills, and now have question marks about Tua’s health. The line for this game was -6 as late as Sunday morning, and the Jets win against a woeful Steelers team does not feel like it should move the line 2.5 points.

While Tua will be held out of the game, Teddy Bridgewater was more than adequate replacing Tua last week. We expect this line to end up closer to -4.5 by kickoff, but at this spread, it is our best bet of Week 5 at the moment. PICK: Dolphins -3.5

  1. Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

This is a huge divisional game for both teams this week. While Lamar Jackson looked superhuman during the first three weeks of the season, he looked much less dominant this past weekend against the Bills. Meanwhile, the Bengals easily took care of business on Thursday night against an undefeated Dolphins team, and are coming off extra rest.

The Bengals dominated the Ravens last year in this matchup winning 41-17, and the market is favoring the Bengals in this game, so if you want Cincinnati and the three points as we do, bet this game now before the market adjusts. PICK: Bengals +3

  1. Atlanta Falcons (+8.5) at Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers defense finally showed some vulnerability in Week 4, and although they will be facing a lesser quarterback in Marcus Mariota this week, the Falcons have shown they can score this season. They are currently eighth in points per game this season and are surprising most experts with their productivity.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay benefitted greatly from having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back out on the field, but Godwin was injured again on Sunday and is questionable for this week. The Falcons have been slightly underrated by the oddsmakers so far this year and we expect this divisional game to be relatively close. The line started at Falcons +9 and we expect the line to fall to +7.5 around game time, so we would bet this game now. PICK: Falcons +8.5