The Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) will host the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) in a highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl LVII on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points, with the over/under sitting at 45.5 points. The total may seem low considering the Chiefs’ 38-35 victory over the Eagles in last year’s big game, and it has been adjusted downward from an initial opening of 48 points.
The Chiefs are currently 4-1 at home, with their only loss at Arrowhead Stadium coming in a narrow 21-20 defeat on opening day against the Lions. They had a bye last week and last played on November 5, when they defeated the Dolphins 21-14 in Germany. The Eagles, on the other hand, boast a 4-1 record on the road, with their only overall loss this season coming in Week 6 against the Jets, 20-14. They have won their last three games, scoring at least 28 points in each of those victories. Philadelphia is also coming off a bye week after beating the Cowboys 28-23 at home in their last contests.
The Eagles scoring offense ranks third in the NFL, averaging 28 points per game. They are also sixth in passing yards per attempt (7.7) but only 21st in rushing yards per attempt (4.0). Jalen Hurts leads the offense with 15 passing touchdowns, seven rushing touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
The Chiefs’ defense has been more elite than expected this season, ranking first in the NFL with an average of 15.9 yards allowed per game. They are also third in passing yards allowed per attempt (5.5) but 27th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.5).
Kansas City’s offense ranks 13th in scoring (23.1 points per game), 12th in passing yards per attempt (7.3), and 15th in rushing yards per attempt (4.1). Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. He has also rushed for 258 yards and 6.1 yards per attempt.
The Eagles’ defense allows an average of 21.7 points per game (17th in the NFL), 6.4 yards per pass attempt (14th), and 3.7 yards per rush attempt (7th).
Both teams have been efficient in the red zone, with the Eagles ranking 12th in touchdown percentage and the Chiefs ranking 13th. Kansas City has a slight edge in red zone defense, ranking 17th, while the Eagles rank 26th in preventing opponents from scoring touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.
While a strong cause can be made for either side, I believe the Chiefs will emerge victorious in this rematch, with their defense proving to be the deciding factor.
As for some trends, the Eagles have dropped four straight games against the spread as underdogs, and the Chiefs have covered four straight times when facing a team with a winning record.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Eagles 20