Bowl Season Day 1: Top Bets
December 16, 2022

Here are our top bets from the first day of the bowl season.

Cure Bowl: Troy (+2.5, 57) vs UTSA

Statistically, UTSA has one of the best offenses in college football, both rushing and passing, going against a top ten defense according to SP+.  Back in September at Texas and against Houston, probably the two toughest teams the Roadrunners faced, Frank Harris threw for 559 yards on a 66.7% completion rate with three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also adding 101 rushing yards and a score. In the last three games, he has completed 80.8% of his passes with 11.32 yards per attempt, throwing nine TDs with only one interception, and adding four more scores on the ground.

We find it difficult to see the Trojans stopping or even slowing him today. Western Kentucky threw for 406 yards against Troy, and a less than 100% Grayson McCall led Coastal Carolina to 432 yards. We believe Harris will have a standout game, and his experience and abilities will be too much for Troy.

We like UTSA -2.5.


Bahamas Bowl: UAB (-11, 45.5) vs Miami (OH)

The Blazers average 30.6 points per game and 6.8 yards per play with a 45% Success Rate and an average of 4.11 points per opportunity. Considering that Miami (OH) ranks 109th in pace, expect the clock to tick early and often.

UAB strongly prefers the run game behind star running back DeWayne McBride, although it is likely that McBride will not play in this game. That success on the ground has led to a decrease in passing numbers. The Blazers throw the ball 24.4 times per game on average, as their 38% passing rate ranks 124th in the country.

On the total, 97% of the money has come in on the over, which explains the line moving from an opening number of 44.5. however, this matchup features two slow-paced teams against defenses likely to get them off of the field. That should keep scoring at a premium and keep the clock moving.

We like the Under at 45.5.