As we approach the MLB trade deadline, it’s time to take a look at some of the biggest surprises
for sports bettors this season.
Home Field Advantage Is a Myth
One of the biggest surprises has been the lack of home field advantage in MLB this season. As
of July 27, 19 of the 30 teams have lost money when at home, and among the profitable home
teams, the Red Sox lead all teams with $484 of profit. To put that into perspective, there are 10
MLB teams whose road profits have exceeded what any team has done at home.
Sports bettors and even odds makers tend to believe that home teams have an advantage, but
it is clear that whatever advantage they have has been overbaked into the pregame moneyline
prices this season, and home-field advantage is no longer as big of a factor as it used to be.
The Washington Nationals Are the Most Profitable Road Team
Another surprise has been the success of the Washington Nationals on the road. The Nationals
may be dead last in the National League East, but they are far from bottom feeders for sports
bettors who have regularly wagered on them. The Nationals have won 23 of their first 49 road
games, but considering that they have been an underdog in every single one of those road
games, the winning percentage is impressive. Even when the Nationals fall short, they tend to
keep games close, with a 33-16 run line record on the road. Washington’s August and September schedule is loaded up with teams that are likely to have
more to play for, which will continue to give the pesky Nats huge value down the stretch.
The Padres Are the Worst Sports Betting Team in the NL
The Padres came into the season as one of the National League Pennant hopefuls but have
played more like a team in the rebuilding stages. Due to the expectations, the Padres tend to
find themselves as significant favorites, so they have lost a lot of money despite having a .500
record as a favorite this season. Blake Snell has also been pitching incredibly since June, but as
of July 27th he is still the second worst profitable pitcher in the National League when starting
(-$831), largely due to the team’s inconsistency.
These Starting Pitchers Are Profitable Goldmines
Finally, a few of the most profitable starting pitchers in MLB this season have been relative
unknowns. Dean Kremer, Taijuan Walker, Trevor Williams, Andrew Abbott, and Brayan Bello are
all names that may seem random, but they are all among the most profitable pitchers in the
league. None of these names are household names to the casual public sports bettors, but they
should be to you, so down the stretch, make a note each time one of these guys is toeing the
These are just a few of the biggest surprises for sports bettors this season. As we approach the
trade deadline, it will be interesting to see if any of these trends continue.