Now that the playoff field is set, let take a look at the odds and probabilities for each team winning the World Series. Futures bets this late in the season are not necessarily about just betting the underdogs, but more about finding value in a team that is undervalued by the sportsbooks. Based on our expert’s models, we will take a look at each teams win probability and let you know which teams are undervalued and overvalued.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Houston Astros (+380)
The Houston Astros have the best odds in the American League to win the World Series, and the second best odds overall. Coming off a World Series appearance last year and having the best record in the American League, this doesn’t come as a surprise. Based on our expert’s calculations, the Astros have a 17.4% chance of winning the World Series, so their true odds should be +475, meaning they are overvalued by the sportsbooks and not a good bet. NO BET
New York Yankees (+550)
Because the Yankees are always such a popular wager based on the number of fans they have, the sportsbooks almost always overvalue them in order to protect themselves. This year, we show the Yankees chances of winning the World Series at just 9%, meaning their odds should be +1011. Once again, they are seriously overvalued by the sportsbooks. NO BET
Cleveland Guardians (+3000)
The Cleveland Guardians were undervalued to win the division all season until the final few weeks. We would expect the probability of winning the World Series will decrease starting with the third seed in each league, given that they have to play a wildcard series. With a World Series winning probability at 2.1%, the Indians should have odds of +4662, meaning they are also overvalued. NO BET
Toronto Blue Jays (+1600)
The Blue Jays have played better in the second half of the season and were a very popular pick to win the World Series prior to the season starting. After a slow start to the season, they have played much better in the second half. We show the Blue Jays chances of winning the World Series at 6.2%, which equates to odds of +1512, which means there is minimal value to this pick. SLIGHT BET
Seattle Mariners (+3000)
The Seattle Mariners are one of the feel-good stories of the year given the end of their long playoff drought and relatively unknown players. With a 4.1% chance of winning the World Series, their true odds should be +2339, which is significantly less than the sportsbooks’ odds. Therefore, there is value in wagering on the Mariners. BET
Tampa Bay Rays (+2000)
Tampa Bay, another relatively unknown team outside of those in Florida, have once again had a consistent season under the radar. Their true odds of winning the World Series should be +2122 given their 4.5% chance to win the World Series, so there is no value with betting the Rays. NO BET
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Los Angeles Dodgers (+300)
Like the Yankees, there is also rarely value betting on the Dodgers to win the World Series because of the popularity of the team. The Dodgers again had a great season and have the best odds of winning the World Series at the sportsbooks. With the 14.9% chance of winning the World Series, their odds should be +571, making them severely overvalued by the oddsmakers. NO BET
Atlanta Braves (+500)
The defending World Series Champions put together another historic second half to win the NL East. Our experts actually project them as the most likely to win the World Series with a 15.9% chance, which should translate to odds of +529. Off the four teams that earned a by this season, this makes the Braves the only team to be undervalued by the sportsbooks, and a good bet. BET
St. Louis Cardinals (+1700)
The Cardinals have been a fun team to watch this year, partly because of the impending retirement of Pujols and Molina. They have put together a really good season, but we show them with only a 3.1% chance of winning the World Series, meaning their true odds should be +3126. Betting on St. Louis would be one of the worst bets you can make at this time. NO BET
New York Mets (+950)
Given that the Mets were in sole possession of first place for the vast majority of the season, they cannot be happy being a wildcard team and having to play an extra series. Given that series, their probability of winning the World Series dropped to 10.4%, which translates to odds of +862, meaning they are currently undervalued by the oddsmakers and are a good bet. BET
San Diego Padres (+3000)
The Padres have been a tough team for the oddsmakers to handicap this season as they have loads of talent, but it hasn’t always translated to wins. Based on that, they are tied for the worst odds to win the World Series at sportsbooks, however, we do show that the have a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, which means their odds should be +1438. As of today, betting on the Padres gives you the most value of any team. BET
Philadelphia Phillies (+3000)
The Phillies turned their season around after a slow start to earn the final wild card spot in the NL this season. However, they do have talent and the ability to play with some of the best teams, which is why we calculate their probability of winning the World Series at 5.9%, which should land their odds at +1595. They are significantly undervalued by the sportsbooks as well. BET
