The 2023 Kentucky Derby is upon us, and you know what that means: it’s time to double down on your predictions on who will win the race. Will the favorite Forte win this time, or will a long-shot like Cyclone Mischief pull an upset? And let’s not forget the possibility of a fifth horse falling ill at the last minute.

Negativities aside, here are a few things you could consider to make the most out of your bets before the big day.

Forte is a double-edged sword

If you’ve been following the races this year, chances are you already know that Forte is the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby this year. With the odds at 3-1, that’s where many people are putting their money.

But that also means the more people who place a bet on the most likely winner, the more the pot gets divided. While Forte might be a good win bet, wagering a win on another horse, such as Verifying (15-1) or Tapit Trice (5-1), could be a smarter move.

Watch out for unlikely threats

This year’s derby has an exciting lineup – none of them seem like a standout winner, but quite a few have the history or pedigree to support a win.

For example, Derma Sotogake (10-1) is poised to make history as the first Japanese-based horse to win the race. He already has four wins behind him, with the most recent one in Dubai.

Or how about Kingsbarns (12-1), who’s currently undefeated at three wins, or Mage (15-1), who was on Forte’s heels previously in Florida?

And don’t forget Verifying, whose sire Justify was the 2018 Triple Crown winner. That kind of pedigree could be the magic touch needed to win the derby.

Bet on boxes instead of straights

With quite a few contenders and underdog threats this year, it might be wiser to bet an exacta or trifecta box instead of a win or straight. Doing so means you acknowledge the race circumstances that day and aim to cover all of your bases.

Doing a box bet also lets you put your money on favorites like Forte or Tapit Trice while throwing in a wildcard like Reincarnate (50-1) for a personal touch.

Don’t forget the jockeys

It’s easy to get swept away with excitement when considering horses to bet on and for what reason, but let’s not forget their jockeys. Sometimes, they can make the difference between pulling 110% out of an underdog and blowing a sizable lead.

Look at Disarm (30-1), for example. This horse isn’t anyone’s favorite to win, but you shouldn’t write him off. His jockey is Joel Rosario, who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Or how about Reincarnate, whose jockey is John Velazquez – a three-time Kentucky Derby winner.

If anyone knows how to squeeze every last drop of speed and stamina out of a horse in such a high-stakes race, it would be Rosario and Velazquez. And they have the wins to prove it. So just make sure you’re looking at all angles before picking your winner.